ConocoPhillips
ConocoPhillips
aking predictions about when an oilfield will come online and how much oil that field will produce is an inexact science at best. The number of factors involved in successfully finding and extracting oil from start to finish is countless. Oil and gas exploration is dependent on climate, price volatility, budgetary restraints (both state and corporate), land access, permitting, safety requirements, technology, and… shall we go on? While it’s close to impossible to say exactly how much oil will come from the North Slope in the coming years, it’s roundly accepted the state will see a major uptick in activity in the region thanks in part to The More Alaska Production Act, also known as SB 21, which has drawn billions of dollars in new investment to Alaska over the past several years, causing Alaska’s major oil and gas players (and some newcomers) to invest their faith and money in the Alaska Arctic with new and ongoing projects.
The company is also developing Greater Mooses Tooth 2 (GMT2) following successful production last year at Greater Mooses Tooth 1 (GMT1) also located in NPR-A. The company expects GMT2 to produce 35,000 to 40,000 bopd via thirty-six initial wells, which may increase to forty-eight, at a cost of less than $1 billion, according to a company fact sheet. Plans call for GMT2 to connect to the Alpine production center “for processing via GMT1 and CD5 infrastructure.” First oil at GMT2 is planned for late 2021.
percent complete in late 2018 and the pad was set for first production in January of this year. The company expects peak production of 16,000 bopd of viscous oil by 2021. The Milne Point field is owned by Hilcorp and BP in a 50/50 partnership and operated by Hilcorp. Hilcorp is using polymer flooding to help push more thick oil out of the ground, resulting in higher yields. In total, Moose Pad represents a $400 million investment that will result in recovery of 60 million barrels of oil, according to the company. Hilcorp expects Milne Point to be producing 35,000 bopd by the end of this year.
Overall, Oil Search (operating in state as Oil Search Alaska) says it expects development will meet or exceed its project forecast. The company continues to advance its plans through permitting and cooperation discussions with other North Slope operators.
“The results of the drilling are in… Alaska represents an excellent start to 2019, which promises to be an exciting year,” says Peter Botten, managing director at Oil Search.
Future development wells at Alkaid will be horizontal, stimulated, and perforated over larger intervals which Pantheon says will deliver significantly larger production rates than April’s flow rate of 80 to 1,000 bopd of light oil. The company applied to the state to suspend and freeze the wellbore for use as a future development well and producer.
“Despite [the] news on the secondary targets, Alkaid has been a great success for Pantheon, exceeding our expectations in the primary target, and upgrading the adjoining Phecda prospect which appears analogous on seismic… Our decision to apply to the State to suspend and freeze protect Alkaid now was impacted significantly by the ‘brackish water’ produced in the West Sak and also by the recent exceptionally warm weather on the North Slope. It is imperative to preserve the Alkaid discovery well for future production. The Alkaid success provides ongoing confidence on future drilling operations where the high tech geophysics applied to Alkaid can be replicated across the entire portfolio and deliver material success, as has been the case with other operators chasing this similar play in adjoining leases,” said Jay Cheatham, CEO of Pantheon in an April press release.
It appears that forecasters were right on the money when they predicted the North Slope would see more activity this year than in the past decade as companies from around the world look to Alaska’s oil reserves with renewed interest. North Slope production is expected to average 511,500 bopd in FY2019 and 529,000 barrels per day in FY2020, according to the Resource Development Council. Whether these projections are right on the nose or even close to accurate, there’s no doubt that the North Slope is far from tapped out.