Shepherding oil from its geologic hiding place to the global market is a marathon. Between permitting and exploration to the construction of infrastructure and storage facilities, bringing a well to fruition can take the better part of a decade. Alaska’s geologic bounty for the next decade is still hiding underground, but the process is underway to bring it to the surface. Several early-stage developments are setting up what might become the state’s next big energy story.

A discovery called Sockeye-2 in the Lagniappe area east of Prudhoe Bay boasts a promising pedigree. Bill Armstrong, the Colorado geologist behind the 2013 Pikka discovery that sparked renewed North Slope activity, is at it again.

Armstrong’s track record speaks for itself. Pikka didn’t just create one project—it opened an entire frontier leading to nearby discoveries like ConocoPhillips Alaska’s Willow project. This time, Armstrong’s company Lagniappe Alaska teamed up with major operators Apache and Santos to drill Sockeye-2. Apache holds a 50 percent working interest while Lagniappe and Santos each hold 25 percent in the 325,411-acre block on state lands.

The results have been impressive. APA Corporation, of which Apache is a subsidiary, announced in April that Sockeye-2 drilled to about 10,500 feet deep and hit a high-quality reservoir with 20 percent average porosity. During a twelve-day production test, the well averaged 2,700 barrels per day without any artificial stimulation—exactly what geologists love to see.

Armstrong believes Sockeye-2 could spark a “second renaissance” in North Slope exploration. The discovery sits within a field that Armstrong estimates could contain 700 million barrels of recoverable oil. Importantly, the well demonstrates exceptional natural flow rates without stimulation techniques, which Armstrong calls “old-school geology where the wells are really good.” This unstimulated flow characteristic gives Sockeye advantages over even the successful Pikka and Willow developments.

“We are excited about the performance from the Sockeye-2 well, which could greatly benefit the state of Alaska and the US,” said Armstrong, CEO of Armstrong Oil and Gas, in an April APA press release. “This discovery significantly extends the prolific Brookian topset play first established with our Pikka discovery in 2013. We have identified analogous anomalies to investigate following on this success.”

APA CEO John J. Christmann added, “The results from the Sockeye-2 flow test are consistent with our expectations, demonstrating high quality reservoir, confirming our geologic and geophysical models and derisking additional prospectivity in the block. We will evaluate the data from the Sockeye-2 well to determine the next steps in our Alaska program.”

The location helps as well. It’s close to existing infrastructure at ExxonMobil’s Point Thomson operation, and since it’s on state land, Alaska would receive full royalties.

“The Sockeye-2 well further demonstrates the potential of the play, presenting an exciting opportunity in an active area of the North Slope with significant existing infrastructure,” said Armstrong in an earlier APA release.

While companies are making discoveries on state land, the US government is opening federal areas that had been off limits. The US Department of the Interior plans to reopen 82 percent of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A) to oil and gas development.

The area has been treated as a storehouse for future oil development for more than 100 years. During the energy crisis of the ‘70s, Congress redesignated it from a reserve for US Navy resources to a national asset under the US Bureau of Land Management. Almost immediately, though, parts of NPR-A were restricted because the value of the surface lands outweighed the potential underground: the Utukok River Uplands Special Area contains critical habitat for the Western Arctic caribou herd, the Colville River Special Area is home to the arctic peregrine falcon, and the Teshekpuk Lake Special Area near the coast is a crossroads for migratory birds from around the world. With those cautions in place, the first leases were assigned in 1999.

NPR-A contains the Willow project, which the Biden administration approved in 2023 despite reluctance to allow drilling on federal lands elsewhere. This reluctance vanished with the return of the Trump administration, which proposed an “Energy Dominance” plan in June 2025 to rescind a 2024 rule that created a presumption against oil and gas activity in NPR-A’s special areas.

“This plan is about creating more jobs for Americans, reducing our dependence on foreign oil, and tapping into the immense energy resources the National Petroleum Reserve was created to deliver,” said Acting Assistant Secretary for Land and Minerals Management Adam Suess in a June 2025 press release. “We’re cutting red tape and restoring commonsense policies that ensure responsible development and good stewardship of our public lands.”

The policy shift advances the BLM’s process to update its Integrated Activity Plan, aligning with the 2020 framework for managing NPR-A. Although oil companies showed no interest in a federal lease sale in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in January, further leasing in NPR-A may be more enticing thanks to infrastructure ConocoPhillips Alaska has installed to reach its Greater Mooses Tooth Unit and the Bear Tooth Unit, where the Willow project is located.

Cook Inlet, Alaska’s most established producing region, continues evolving. The latest state lease sale brought in $872,072 across five leases covering about 21,800 acres—the strongest bonus revenue from a Cook Inlet sale in a decade.

Hilcorp Alaska was the only bidder, extending its holdings near the former Nikolaevsk Unit (where leases still produce gas) and around the former Kasilof Unit (drilled but never developed before termination in 2016).

But here’s what’s really interesting: Cook Inlet is diversifying beyond traditional oil and gas. In April, the state held its first geothermal lease sale at Augustine Volcano, the 4,133-foot peak forming its own island at the mouth of Cook Inlet. The Alaska Division of Oil and Gas lease sale covered twenty-four tracts across 55,771 acres on Augustine’s north side.

While three companies have expressed interest in the volcano’s geothermal potential, only GeoAlaska ultimately submitted bids. All six of its bids were accepted, adding 11,991 acres to GeoAlaska’s geothermal portfolio. According to GeoAlaska in an April press release, the Alaska Department of Natural Resources “converted GeoAlaska’s geothermal prospecting permits covering the southern half of Augustine Island into seven geothermal leases with ten-year terms,” securing rights to an additional 10,330 acres. The company now has a total of 22,321 acres at Augustine Island.

According to the same release, subsurface surveys on Augustine Island have identified three shallow geothermal reservoir targets and one deeper reservoir target, about 2 kilometers subsurface, above the island’s magma storage system. The next phase, according to the company, is exploratory drilling to further de-risk the project and refine the P50 power model (a probability model that indicates a 50 percent probability that actual energy production will be at or above the level indicated).

Haley Paine, deputy director of the Division of Oil & Gas, said in a press release about the lease sale, “Sustainable geothermal development could be a growing part of the energy portfolio for Alaskans if this exploration progresses, and our efforts to develop this potential is an important part of the Dunleavy administration’s ‘all of the above’ energy policy.”

Recent exploration success reflects major advancements in geological techniques. The same technological improvements that allowed for Armstrong’s Pikka discovery also enabled nearby finds like Willow. 3D seismic processing and interpretation now help identify reservoir characteristics that would have been impossible to detect years ago.

Despite promising results, the route from discovery to production remains a long one, and the next phase of drilling may not take place until 2027. That timeline reflects Alaska’s development realities; logistical challenges, environmental considerations, regulatory processes, and technical complexity all contribute to extended schedules.

These developments collectively represent significant potential for Alaska’s energy future. The combination of successful state land exploration, expanded federal access, and energy diversification creates multiple pathways for production growth and revenue generation.

What’s encouraging is the diversity of opportunities spanning different geographical areas, energy types, and regulatory frameworks. This provides multiple shots at success while reducing reliance on any single project. The coming years will determine whether these early activities mature into producing assets that define Alaska’s next major energy expansion.