resident Donald Trump’s administration missed the target date of holding the first-ever oil drilling lease sale in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in 2019 due to delays with the environmental review process. However, the administration’s $4.8 trillion proposed budget for 2021 includes $1.06 billion in anticipated revenue from the lease sale this year and $502 million in 2021.

“An ANWR 1002 lease sale is the first step in opening an opportunity to responsibly develop Alaska’s abundant oil and gas resources in an area that was specifically set aside for oil and gas development but has been held hostage administratively for many years,” Governor Mike Dunleavy says.

“ANWR 1002 leasing will provide local jobs, grow our private sector economy, and put more oil in the Trans Alaska Pipeline System [TAPS]. Additionally, this would result in putting dollars in our Permanent Fund and state and federal treasuries. We fully recognize the importance of this resource in the nation’s overall strategy of energy independence.”

ANWR in total is 19 million acres, with wilderness dominating 18 million acres of the area; more than 94 percent of the refuge is permanently protected and can never be developed, explains Alaska Oil and Gas Association President and CEO Kara Moriarty.

Area 1002, the only section of ANWR in which lease sales would take place, comprises about 1 million acres. Within that area, Secretary of the Interior David Bernhardt—through the Bureau of Land Management—is directed to establish two area-wide leasing sales of at least 400,000 acres each. Congress has limited the footprint for oil and gas ground facilities to about 2,000 acres.

With the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Trump advanced decades-long efforts to develop the 1002 Area by directing the Department of Interior to hold lease sales.

In September, the Department of Interior released the Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for the Coastal Plain Oil and Gas Leasing Program, clearing the way for development. At least 13,000 labor hours were dedicated to creating the EIS.

Among those who played a crucial role in the planning process were staff from Fish and Wildlife Services, who “developed the range of alternatives contained in the EIS as well as the protective mitigation measures,” according to a Department of the Interior statement.

“After rigorous review, robust public comment, and a consideration of a range of alternatives, today’s announcement is a big step to carry out the clear mandate we received from Congress to develop and implement a leasing program for the Coastal Plain, a program the people of Alaska have been seeking for over forty years,” Bernhardt said at the time.

The release of the Final EIS was heavily praised by all three members of Alaska’s congressional delegation.

“The release of this final EIS to open the 1002 area of ANWR is the culmination of decades of work. I have fought for responsible oil and gas exploration on the Coastal Plain since ANWR was created, and I am immensely pleased that we have reached this stage,” said US Representative Don Young. “Alaskans are committed environmental stewards, and they know how to balance environmental protection and resource development—we did it in Prudhoe Bay and we’ll do it again in ANWR.”

US Senator Dan Sullivan and US Senator Lisa Murkowski also hailed the move as a success for the state and nation.

“For decades, Alaskans have been urging their federal government to open the 1002 area of ANWR for exploration,” Sullivan said. “At long last, Congress voted to allow it. Now, the administration is working diligently to fulfill Congress’s directions in a transparent and responsible process. I welcome today’s announcement—another critical step in the process to unleash Alaska’s energy and economic potential. As Alaska has shown time and again, we can responsibly develop our resources, under the highest environmental standards, to grow our state and significantly contribute toward the goal of energy dominance for our country.”

Murkowski echoed Sullivan’s sentiments.

“I’m hopeful we can now move to a lease sale in the very near future, just as Congress intended, so that we can continue to strengthen our economy, our energy security, and our long-term prosperity,” Murkowski said.

Dunleavy points out that Alaskans have been waiting to develop the area since the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act, which was passed in 1980 to expand ANWR but also set aside the 1002 Area.

“Alaska has unique expertise and a successful history of developing oil and gas resources in the Arctic with the utmost care and protection of the environment,” Dunleavy says. “No longer is it a question of whether or not these resources can be developed carefully and responsibly, preserving the natural environment. It is time for the Federal government to remove obstacles to the economic prosperity of Alaska’s remote communities and the state’s economy.”

He explains that Alaska provided input from state regulators, biologists, resource specialists, engineers, and geologists to help inform the Department of the Interior’s environmental review process.

“This collaborative relationship aids in knowledge sharing among agencies and regulators to help ensure the same environmental protections that are achieved while developing oil and gas throughout Alaska are also achieved while developing ANWR resources,” Dunleavy says.

The US Geologic Survey estimates that the 1002 Coastal Plain portion of ANWR contains anywhere from 5.7 billion to 16 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil.

“Additional seismic investigation is necessary to further understand the resource potential of the ANWR Coastal Plain. Regardless, potential royalties from developing all of the estimated technically recoverable oil could generate as much as $100 billion in state and federal revenues,” Dunleavy says.

Resource Development Council Executive Director Marleanna Hall points toward the history of resource development on the North Slope to mitigate concerns about the impact that development could have on wildlife in the area.

“Billions of barrels of oil have been produced on the North Slope without causing any significant harm to the environment,” Hall says. “Over four decades of experience on Alaska’s North Slope have shown that caribou who visit the area for a few months each year have not been harmed by development activities. The Central Arctic herd, which migrates into existing North Slope fields, has expanded from 5,000 animals in 1970 to over 66,000 animals today.”

The impact of oil and gas development on wildlife in the Arctic—especially caribou—continues to be controversial. Opponents of the lease sale point toward the well-being of the Porcupine Caribou Herd, whose calving grounds are on the coastal plain of ANWR.

Caribou Use of Habitat Near Energy Development in Arctic Alaska, published by a team of scientists led by staff at the US Geological Survey, states that “although the amount of habitat lost directly to energy development in the Arctic will likely be relatively small, there are significant concerns about habitat that may be indirectly affected because of caribou avoidance behaviors.”

The findings from the study conducted by the team “corroborate a growing body of evidence suggesting that habituation to industrial development in caribou in the Arctic is likely to be weak or absent and emphasizes the value of minimizing the footprint of infrastructure within important seasonal habitat to reduce behavioral effects to barren-ground caribou.”

Nonetheless, Dunleavy joins Hall in being mindful of Alaska’s record of mitigating potential impacts to the environment while developing resources.

“I believe, as Alaska has successfully demonstrated, that we can both protect the environment and create economic opportunity,” Dunleavy says.

“Alaska was recognized by Secretary of State Seward and purchased for our position on the globe and our vast resource potential. Becoming a state was predicated upon our ability to develop our resources. We have a great track record of resource development, some of the most stringent standards for environmental protection, and have proven we are home to the most vast conventional oil plays in the nation. Often those outside interests who oppose developments of this type portray it as an environment versus development, win or lose deal. In Alaska we can have both; it’s a win, win. No one cares more about Alaska than Alaskans—our environment and our economic future.”

Opening ANWR to development has the potential to extend the life of Alaska’s oil and gas industry and TAPS for years, Moriarty says.

“Developing ANWR would provide the oil industry with a potentially large new field to develop, representing a substantial investment opportunity,” Moriarty says. “For example, the Energy Information Administration predicts that ANWR could top 1 million barrels of production a day. More importantly, Alaskans would benefit from the surge of jobs and economic activity created by the billions in investment required to develop ANWR.”

An economic analysis provided by Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates reported the development of oil reserves in the coastal plain could create as many as 736,000 new domestic US jobs, Dunleavy notes.

Oil development in ANWR would generate billions of dollars in government revenue for public services and further improve energy security for decades into the future, Hall says.

“The non-partisan Energy Information Administration [a government agency] estimates that traditional fuel sources like oil and gas will continue to provide the globe with the vast majority of its energy for decades to come,” Moriarty says.

“ANWR is positioned to provide the energy the world needs now and for years into the future. It is preferable to produce oil and gas here in Alaska where environmental oversight and regulations are among the most stringent in the world. No one develops natural resources as safely and responsibly as Alaskans,” she continues.

However, even after the lease sale, it will be years before oil starts to flow from ANWR.

“It is impossible to speculate about exact time frames, but here is a universal truth about oil and gas development in Alaska, particularly on the North Slope: development takes time,” Moriarty says. “The process that takes projects from exploration to first oil can span anywhere from five to twenty years. We can expect the permitting process for any development in ANWR to be thorough and lengthy.”

The only data from a well drilled in ANWR is from KIC-1, which was spud in 1986. The work was done through long-standing leases held by Chevron and BP on ANWR inholdings (privately owned land within the boundary of a national park) owned by Kaktovik Iñupiat Corporation.

BP is set to transfer its portion of the leases and associated data to Hilcorp as part of Hilcorp’s acquisition of BP’s Alaska assets. Whether or not oil was encountered remains undisclosed.

Nonetheless, optimism surrounds the lease sales.

“We are looking forward to these ANWR lease sales—it’s going to be good for Alaska, and it’s going to be good for America,” Dunleavy says. “ANWR is believed to hold a large pool of oil and having that in the mix of America’s energy portfolio bodes well for both the American and Alaskan economies and adds stability going forward.”