ince Adam Smith wrote the first two treatises on economics, all the technological advances in the last 250 years still can’t accurately predict the financial future. What technology can do is provide data to economists, who distill it into usable information for strategic planning. Economists traditionally work for governments, higher education, and private companies, but financial institutions hire them as well.

Take, for example, Mark Edwards. When Northrim Bank’s executive vice president, chief credit officer, and bank economist joined the company in 2007, he was the only bank-employed economist in Alaska. Fast-forward seventeen years, and he says it’s possible that he may still be the only one working for an Alaska-based community bank.

Founded thirty-four years ago as a strong, independent, local bank with community and customer service at its heart, Edwards says Northrim has matured from a small community bank with 21 employees, one branch, and $8 million in assets into an active and engaged community leader with more than 400 employees and more than $2 billion in assets. Northrim Bank now has twenty branches in Anchorage, Eagle River, Fairbanks, Homer, Juneau, Ketchikan, Kodiak, Nome, Sitka, Soldotna, and Wasilla. It serves approximately 90 percent of Alaska’s population, with an asset-based lending division in Washington state and a wholly owned mortgage brokerage company, Residential Mortgage.

“Our employees are engaged, accountable, and aligned,” says Edwards. “Our mission, vision, and values guide us in everything we do. We seek to be Alaska’s most trusted financial institution. We strive to be Alaska’s premier bank and employer of choice. We are proud to be Alaskan. We have a sincere appreciation for our customers. We look for growth opportunities. We are a trustworthy, reliable, and ethical organization. We do what is right.”

Economic analysis is a tool for Northrim to achieve its vision. Edwards says his primary goal is to research data from multiple sources and boil it down into useful information. Internally, his role as an economist helps inform the bank’s management and board about economic issues that could positively or negatively impact the business. Externally, he also shares data and ideas with customers who are facing significant personal or business decisions.

Northrim Bank also created the Alaskanomics Blog to share its perspective of news, analysis, and commentary on Alaska’s economy. With posts from economists such as Edwards, business leaders, policymakers, and everyday Alaskans, Alaskanomics aims to engage readers in an ongoing conversation about the economy and its potential future. Although most posts are brief, they present relevant numbers in a concise manner, often supplementing analysis with tables and charts. Topics range from labor and economic forecasts to industry impact, infrastructure, and fiscal policy.

In addition to the blog, Alaskanomics offers a list of resources where readers can find more economic information from organizations and publications, as well as updates and forecasts from Northrim Bank employees. The site also has a list of organizations that regularly host economic events.

“The economy is always changing, so it is never a boring field,” says Edwards. “I look for paradigm shifts in the US and global economy that could impact Alaska.”

Since Northrim Bank is a publicly traded company on the NASDAQ, Edwards generally writes two pages quarterly on the most recent economic indicators in Alaska for Northrim’s earnings release. Although it’s common for national banks to have economists on staff, even those in Alaska, Edwards says that they are not overly focused on the unique economic issues Alaskans face.

Economics was Edwards’ route into the banking world. He earned a degree in economics from the University of Virginia before completing his graduate studies in international management from Arizona State University’s Thunderbird School of Global Management. He was with Northrim for a dozen years before being promoted to Bank Economist in 2019.

Banking and financial services economists are just one career path in a larger professional umbrella. There are multiple subfields within the economics discipline, including econometrics, macroeconomics and microeconomics, public finance, labor economics, international economics, and industrial and organizational economics. Economists use a combination of these subfields depending on their career path.

It’s common to find economists working for corporations, governments, academia, and in banking and financial services. The most frequent positions within the banking structure are chief economists, who provide intellectual leadership and direction to the bank’s overall international development strategy; research economists, who conduct research and analysis on economic and financial issues; and financial economists, who analyze economic and monetary trends, particularly as they relate to policy.

Edwards understands the different sub-fields. Previous to his position with Northrim Bank, he served the State of Alaska as its state economist in the Department of Commerce, Community, and Economic Development as the director of the Office of Economic Development, where he worked on diverse issues ranging from economic development in rural Alaska to international exports, and in the Department of Revenue, focusing on developing the natural gas pipeline, petroleum tax issues, and the state’s long-term fiscal plan.

In his current position, he conducts research and analysis—including economic trends, market conditions, and financial regulations—to forecast potential effects over time. He achieves this by tracking the same data sets over extended periods to gain insight into the underlying reasons for the changes. Over time, he can see which variables impact each other. Population data, job growth, oil prices and production, government budgets, interest and inflation rates, and housing prices are a few key indicators that can help predict larger changes.

“It is critical to read source data yourself that has not been filtered through opinion pieces,” says Edwards.

To avoid bias during analysis, Edwards says an economist should remain neutral and gather as much accurate data as possible to make an informed decision. There are no black-and-white, correct answers. Numerous risk-weighting variables come into play, and as a result, economists adjust their opinions as new information becomes available, which he admits can be challenging to do. Eventually, the complexities of the economy will slowly come into focus, albeit briefly, before changing again. Edwards says those who can find some enjoyment in that are probably well-suited to become economists, though he suspects the ambiguity is part of the reason there are not more within his profession.

In addition to helping Alaskans make better financial decisions, bank economists also assist in making informed financial decisions. Full-service financial institutions provide products and services for businesses and consumers that meet lending and deposit needs. Economists use data to provide a concentration-risk analysis, product pricing, investment strategy, portfolio diversification, budgeting, and even expansion plans.

Edwards says all these forces must be analyzed to determine which will be pulling the hardest in order to make the data relevant to individuals and businesses, as any variables can offset each other.

“We have over $2 billion in loans outstanding, in just about every sector of the economy,” says Edwards. “Therefore, any information we have on trends could improve our lending decisions.”

Edwards believes his position is one of the ways Northrim Bank differentiates itself, leveraging its detailed knowledge of Alaska’s economy and its signature “superior customer-first service” philosophy.